Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
